Abstract:
We introduce DeepABM, a framework for agent-based modeling that leverages geometric message passing of graph neural networks for simulating action and interactions over large agent populations. Using DeepABM allows scaling simulations to large agent populations in real-time and running them efficiently on GPU architectures. To demonstrate the effectiveness of DeepABM, we build DeepABM-COVID simulator to provide support for various non-pharmaceutical interventions (quarantine, exposure notification, vaccination, testing) for the COVID-19 pandemic, and can scale to populations of representative size in real-time on a GPU. Specifically, DeepABM-COVID can model 200 million interactions (over 100,000 agents across 180 time-steps) in 90 seconds, and is made available online to help researchers with modeling and analysis of various interventions. We explain various components of the framework and discuss results from one research study to evaluate the impact of delaying the second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine in collaboration with clinical and public health experts. While we simulate COVID-19 spread, the ideas introduced in the paper are generic and can be easily extend to other forms of agent-based simulations. Furthermore, while beyond scope of this document, DeepABM enables inverse agent-based simulations which can be used to learn physical parameters in the (micro) simulations using gradient-based optimization with large-scale real-world (macro) data. We are optimistic that the current work can have interesting implications for bringing ABM and AI communities closer.
Papers
1. [Research] DeepABM: Scalable, Efficient and Differentiable Agent-based Simulations via Graph Neural Networks. (Accepted at Winter Simulation Conference 2021). https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.04421.pdf
2. [Public Health Policy] Public health impact of delaying second dose of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 covid-19 vaccine: simulation agent based modeling study. (Accepted at the British Medical Journal 2021). https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1087
Media: Some recent media reports on the project -
2. France 24: https://www.fr24news.com/a/2021/05/delaying-second-dose-of-covid-19-vaccine-may-help-reduce-number-of-deaths-study-fr.html
3. The Weather Channel: https://weather.com/en-IN/india/coronavirus/news/2021-05-13-delaying-second-covid-vaccine-dose
4. Italy 24: https://www.italy24news.com/business/51529.html
5. India.com : https://www.india.com/health/covid-19-vaccination-how-delaying-second-dose-of-coronavirus-vaccine-may-reduce-deaths-4661320/